Predicting the Predictable

Often in natural disasters, it's not the disaster itself that causes widespread injury, loss of life and damage to property. Where people are well off enough to protect themselves and their property against whatever disasters may occur, far fewer people suffer. Therefore, the magnitude of natural disasters in developing countries is often measured in people killed, injured or displaced. But in developed countries, the magnitude is usually measured by insurance claims for damage to property.

There are exceptions, of course, but generally where people are vulnerable, natural disasters have a high human cost. Where people are less vulnerable, property is more likely to be the main loss. Developed countries, such as Japan and the US, experience natural disasters without anything like the human costs experienced by developing countries, such as Haiti. The hurricane that devastated New Orleans is not an exception just because it happened in the US. A lot of the people most affected were poor, vulnerable and marginalised.

When a natural disaster hits a vulnerable country, the disaster itself may not have been entirely predictable, at least, not by people in that country who were able to do anything about it. But it is pretty predictable that, when a country has little infrastructure (especially water and sanitation), minimal health services, low levels of food security and the rest, most disasters will have a huge human cost. Insurance claims may well be negligible for people who have very little to insure and no money to insure with.

Kenya and most other Sub-Saharan African countries are like Haiti in many ways. They have been treated as pawns in the political and commercial games of various Western countries; they have few social services of any kind and little or no resilience to any kind of disaster; they have huge debts and widespread poverty, poor health and malnutrition. We don't know what disasters await them, we just know that there will be disasters and that the consequences will be severe. Perhaps when some disaster strikes, there will be massive press attention, pledges of money, influxes of aid agencies driving white four wheel drives and resolutions to cancel debts.

But all these pledges and other post disaster phenomena won't reduce the immediate impact of the disaster. The human cost will be high. The press will bemoan the fact that the country is so poor and infrastructure is so bad and debts are so high and politicians are so corrupt and whatever else they tend to bemoan in developing countries when it's too late. The amounts of money that are pledged, and even the amounts that actually reach the country, may be far higher than the amounts that were previously needed to strengthen the country's capacity. But that doesn't result in money being spent on increasing the capacity of developing countries to increase their resilience.

Kenya has what could turn out to be a pathological attachment to maize, a non-indigenous crop introduced by the colonials because it's cheap and it's easy to grow large amounts on small areas of land, it fills you up, although it has little nutritional value. This pathological attachment could be compared to Ireland's staple food in the decades before the Great Famine, though I suspect the potato may be a bit more nourishing (or perhaps I'm biased). The potato is not indigenous to Ireland and eventually the inevitable happened. The ideal conditions came together for potato blight that wiped out most of the country's crop.

Much of the currently used agricultural land in Kenya is covered with crops that can not be used for sustenance, such as tea, sugar or coffee. Much is used for non-food crops, such as sisal or flowers. And much of the food that is grown is maize. For many years, maize crops have been threatened or have even failed because of the dependence on rain fed crop growing. But the country still plants mostly maize and it's still mainly rain fed.

The question is not whether disaster will strike in Kenya, it is when and how bad it will be. If the crops just fail in places where there is not much rain, several million people will be affected. If places that usually get a lot of rain have problems, several million more will be affected. Some countries around Kenya, even many areas in Kenya, have recently seen army worms attack, and they can obliterate entire fields. And there are other pests and factors that can take a large area by surprise. Maybe this year most people will survive, maybe not.

But one thing is certain: millions of people are vulnerable. And they are vulnerable in more than one way. If a crop fails, they risk starvation. If the aid agencies come in, the food may not get to people in time because of the infrastructure problems or because of widespread corruption. Or people may die of whatever diseases start spreading, unchecked because of the terrible health service. There's a hair's breadth between Haiti's circumstances and Kenya's circumstances.

It's now that the press should be clamoring for education, health, infrastructure and other social services to be improved, now that pressure needs to be put on the government to deal with corruption, now that individual people need to stop depending on rain fed agriculture, now that they should grow (and consume) things other than maize. And now is the best time to cancel the huge debts that developing countries have been arm-twisted into amassing for decades. Recognition that these circumstances make people vulnerable to inevitable disasters doesn't need to wait until it's too late.

Income Generation Activities Galore

Just over a year ago I appealed to people I know, especially on Facebook, to help me to identify possible income generation activities suitable for developing countries where little capital, skills or infrastructure are available. I was overwhelmed by the slightly fewer than two responses I received and the first one didn't fly. So I set about researching on the internet, contacting people and talking to anyone who was prepared to discuss the subject. Now that I have started making a list, I decided to post it here on my blog so that others trying to research the same thing won't have to start right at the beginning. And maybe some people will even contribute to the list!

The list is by no means exhaustive and the categories are just based on the way things look from here. They overlap to some extent and they are in no particular order, though I think the first two are particularly important because local acceptability can make or break an income generation activity, no matter how 'good' it may seem. And some of the activities that are already widely carried out have a lot to recommend them. The community based organisation I work with, Ribbon of Hope, already grow a number of crops and have financed several livestock programmes. But it's time to branch out, try new things, diversify and ensure that people get the maximum benefit possible.

The approach we are likely to take is to ask our clients what gaps they feel there are in their local market, what local materials are available or could be made available. Also, what skills are there, what do people already know how to do. There must be local products that we don't know about and sometimes it turns out that people can make or do things but just hadn't realised the value of that skill. I'm not sure in advance what we will gain from this or how we are going to elicit the sort of information we want, but I think it could be a valuable exercise. Rather than just teaching people a skill or a few skills, we would also like them to be able to assess all the opportunities that exist and consider acquiring as many skills as possible. So that's the first category.

The second category is to get people to help us make an inventory of what could be produced in the area and sold in a local market or business. I'm thinking of things like sunflower or sesame oil, peanut butter, jam from seasonal fruits, honey, butter, cheese or anything else, even things that are already produced but for which there is little or no market, yet. I'm thinking of a campsite I stayed at in Tanzania which sourced things like this in a relatively remote area. The result was spectacular because many of these products here are only available in highly processed, branded forms (which taste disgusting). They should be produced locally if at all possible.

Ribbon of Hope already supports several shambas (smallholdings), which I have mentioned several times on this blog. Those smallholdings should produce everyday foods that people in the area need but they could also produce high value crops, such as sesame and sunflower seed, where clients can also produce the sesame or sunflower oil. These have the advantage of yielding highly nutritious oil cake as a by-product, which makes excellent animal feed. We should produce animal fodder, especially fodder that can be stored for use during dry periods, which are all too regular and protracted here. And there are all sorts of interesting crops we could consider growing, just to keep things diverse.

Dairy cattle, goats and chickens are a well tried income generation scheme and they are usually successful. Because they are such a good bet, they can require a fair amount of capital, which some of the more risky and less well tried schemes don't. But not everyone can afford to take risks. I'd say, get the low risk schemes started first and then add the others in at leisure. We mustn't forget the hides and furs of stock such as cattle, goats and sheep, either. Certainly, there are many uses for sheep wool, regardless of the quality. But another type of livestock that you don't see so much around here is rabbits, especially the very big ones that are bred for meat. There must be many uses for their fur, too.

There are good opportunities for different types of food processing here, especially food drying. Fruit and vegetables can be solar dried at very low cost. Many crops, such as mango, pineapple, banana and tomato flood the market at certain times of the year and a lot is dumped. These are all good when dried. Ribbon of Hope produced a beautiful crop of coriander in the last few weeks and this would be as good dried as fresh, except that it would be a far more viable crop if we could dry large amounts of it. Mushrooms are grown locally and are a potentially lucrative and nutritious crop that is also good dried. Yoghurt is already widely produced, cheese isn't so popular and maybe there's a reason for that. But many things could be made with local ingredients, such as biscuits, cakes, bread, cassava chips and the like.

Some of the areas here are blighted with a monoculture, especially sisal. But I'm sure people could be persuaded to make things of higher value rather than rope, which is how most of the local sisal ends up. We'll see what people who have been surrounded with sisal all their lives come up with. Not too far from here, silk worms are farmed, so that's another possibility. I've mentioned before the possibility of producing reusable sanitary pads. There are probably going to be lots of objections but many people, especially young girls, can't afford disposable ones so it's worth some effort. Leather goods may be another possibility, especially if local people are successfully breeding relevant livestock. No doubt there are other artisanal products, such as pottery, candles and whatever else. Sorry for being vague but the gaps will be filled in eventually.

Ribbon of Hope has already funded a successful project selling water and this raised surprisingly large amounts of money. Another possibility would be to pasteurize water using solar cookers or solar heaters and selling it. Included in this category, not many people in this dry province of Rift Valley use irrigation, nor do many people harvest rainwater. This is short-sighted and even journalists are apt to bemoan the fact that there is an unwise dependency on rain fed agriculture throughout Kenya (if journalists notice, it’s probably been a problem for decades). It's time to change this, even if it's only to a small extent. Equally, many people don't irrigate their land, even when there is a source of water close by. Since Ribbon of Hope started irrigating its fields, neighbouring farmers have started borrowing their pump. So it is catching on!

One of my favourite types of income generation activity or cost saving activity relates to fuel or energy. I have mentioned solar cookers, such as simple reflective boxes or more complicated parabolic cookers. These are great for cooking food, drying food and for pasteurizing water or milk. Some of our projects involve milk production so free pasteurization would help reduce costs a lot. I've also mentioned fuel briquettes made from waste of various kinds. People could produce these for their own household but they could also produce them for sale in the local area. Wood and charcoal, the most common cooking fuels, are expensive and likely to go up in price. Solar is cheaper, cleaner and better for the environment and could be used to supplement other sources of fuel. Biogas is more difficult to produce but we are hoping to get some to train us in how to produce the stuff.

Some trees and shrubs could be a useful addition to any shamba. The Kenyan government is thinking of introducing a law about people growing a certain number of trees per acre. True to form, they are not giving any advice as to what trees should be grown and which should be avoided (there are some serious problems that result from choosing the wrong trees). And people with very small, possibly rented shambas, will not want to risk reducing their yield by sticking something unproductive in their fields. But there are productive trees and ones that are good for the soil. There are some that produce fruit without compromising the field crops and others that produce oils and even animal fodder. There are trees that can benefit in various ways, so these should be carefully selected.

Finally, some organisations end up with assets that they only sometimes use, such as equipment and tools. These could be rented out to neighbouring farmers or swapped for other benefits, such as labour or tools that are lacking. Tools and machinery are prohibitively expensive here, which is why so many farmers try to fly by the seat of their pants and sometimes fail. Even rainwater harvesting and irrigation involve costs that small farmers can't always meet. But they might be able to share, for a fee, of course. Ribbon of Hope's neighbours have increased their yields so much in the last few months by using their petrol pump that they could easily afford to pay a small fee.

Well, that's it for the moment, but that's quite a list. I'll continue researching and noting progress (and problems) and I'll add links to further information when I can get around to it. I hope people find this list useful and if anyone has other ideas for income generation activities, please let me know. Thank you in anticipation!